Monday, June 10, 2013

Profitable Wagering

As races of all centers commence in a weeks time it is very important that we hold on to our CAPITAL.we have to avoid high risk on-money as well as flukes.
here is a KELLYS probability formula which applies to betting.
Use this theory carefully to your advantage

f=(bp-q)/b

where f= fraction of capital for the day to bet on horse
b= net odds
p= % chance of horse winning
q= % chance of horse losing

Say you are fancying a horse which has a 40% chance of winning (p) odds offered are 5/1 (b) then the horse have 60% chance of losing (q) and above all you are with a capital of Rs 10,000

then

f = (5*40-60)/5
= 28%
so you have to bet your fancy 28% of your days capital ie Rs 2,800 you are going to win 14000

If you have any doubts, feel free to ask.

With regards.
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2 comments:

  1. WellwisherJune 13, 2013 at 1:56 PM

    Hi there, nice of you to suggest this. However, i have my reservations on this. Have you been using Kelly? Wagering 28% of capital in one bet? If there is a losing streak of 5-6 bets, your capital will be wiped out in no time. The idea should preserve the capital in those losing streaks because, if you are a good handicapper, the winners will come, & we need the money to eager then.

    How would you predict the exact winning percentage of a horse, is there a perfect way?

    Good luck

    ReplyDelete
  2. racingtophorsesJune 14, 2013 at 5:06 AM

    Mr. wellwisher

    first of all thank you going through,when we said capital we mean part of capital which you brought in for days races.How many parts you want to divide your capital solely depend on you. we suggest you divide your total risk free yearly racing capital into 20 equal parts some conservatives go for 50.this part is you days capital.while mentioning 28%, we clearly said 28% of your days capital.GOOD LUCK and gamble responsibly


    ReplyDelete

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